Typical Odds

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NBA basketball odds and basketball betting lines updated multiple times daily. Includes updated point spreads, money lines, and totals lines. A period life table is based on the mortality experience of a population during a relatively short period of time. Here we present the 2017 period life table for the Social Security area population.For this table, the period life expectancy at a given age is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality. Pass + 1X Odds: 0.85% Craps: Pass + 2X Odds: 0.61% Craps: Pass + 5X Odds: 0.32% Craps: Pass + 10X Odds: 0.18% Craps: Pass + 100X Odds: 0.02% Craps: Field (2:1 on 12) 5.56% Craps: Field (3:1 on 12) 2.78% Craps: Any craps 11.11% Craps: Big 6,8 9.09% Craps: Hard 4,10 11.11% Craps: Hard 6,8 9.09% Craps: Place (to win) 6,8. Working out the arithmetic mean of a set of 20 odds, 19 of them between 2.0 and 2.4, would be skewed if the 20th figure was, say, 15.0). The correct approach is to calculate average odds by forming the harmonic mean! The harmonic mean is defined as the reciprocal of the arithmetic mean of the reciprocals of x 1, x 2, x n (the odds).


Sometimes it is necessary to figure out the average odds from a set of betting odds which can then be used as the basis for further calculations. For example, computing deviation and variance.

When using odds in European format (decimal) you can be forgiven for thinking that average betting odds are simply computed by building the arithmetic mean of the data to be analysed. Unfortunately, this is the wrong approach and leads to a deceptive result.

Image: Elnur (Shutterstock)

As a reminder, European odds are calculated as the reciprocal of the statistical probabilities of each event:

and vice versa … The implied probabilities are the reciprocals of the odds:

In effect, European odds are ratios/relations representing the likelihood of an event happening in comparison to each other event (e.g. a bet priced at odds of 4.0 is half as likely to win as a bet with odds of 2.0).

If these ratios are averaged using arithmetic mean (a common error), high data points are given greater weights than low data points. (e.g. working out the arithmetic mean of a set of 20 odds, 19 of them between 2.0 and 2.4, would be skewed if the 20th figure was, say, 15.0).

The correct approach is to calculate average odds by forming the harmonic mean!

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The harmonic mean is defined as the reciprocal of the arithmetic mean of the reciprocals of x1, x2, …, xn (the odds):

As the reciprocals of betting odds are the implied probabilities of the events, one can calculate the harmonic mean as a reciprocal of the average probability of the respective bets:

The above equations rearranged facilitates the harmonic mean calculation by dividing n (the number of matches) by the sum of the reciprocals of the odds:

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Or alternatively… dividing n (the number of matches) by the sum of their individual probabilities:

Odds

The Result (Harmonic Mean) is the Accurate Average of the Betting Odds.

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Excel users employ the following formula: =HARMEAN(number1,number2,…)


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