Handicap Draw Sportsbet
Super Saturday at Flemington is set to live up to its namesake after a strong field of 18 accepted for the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) on Wednesday.
The Shamus Award filly has come up with the grandstand draw of barrier 18 and is marked as $7 second favourite with Sportsbet. Corstens said there is a strong possibility his filly will line up at The Valley in the $500,000 G1 William Reid Stakes (1200m) on March 19 before a potential trip to Adelaide. Handicap Bet Explained. A handicap is a system of betting which basically tries to level the playing field in games that appear to be a bit one-sided. It’s a popular type of betting across a variety of sports.
Chris Waller’s three-year-old filly September Run has dominated betting since early markets opened as the reigning Coolmore Stud Stakes winner looks to improve on her runner-up performance to Nature Strip in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes.
Third place-getter and recent rival Swats That occupies the second line of betting, while there’s also a lot to like about dead heat Oakleigh Plate winner Celebrity Queen in her second run back from a spell.
With value right across the board, you can find our thoughts on every horse in our 2021 Newmarket Handicap Preview here.
Zoutori
Zoutori gets another crack at a Group 1 after making up decent ground for seventh first-up in the Oakleigh Plate.
Considered a Flemington specialist, the son of Zoustar has found the money in seven of his 11 starts at this track, which includes a pair of wins over the course and distance in both the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis and Gilgai Stakes during the Spring.
With Nature Strip and Bivouac both accepting in Sydney, the four-year-old will carry the top weight of 57kg under Luke Currie for the first time.
Jamie Kah said he failed to pick up at the turn in the Oakleigh Plate but showed plenty of speed in the late stages.
With a strong second-up record and a firm track expected, he rates as a major each-way chance.
Elite Street
Elite Street’s unbeaten streak came to an end with a luckless first-up outing in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes.
The son of Street Boss was a non-factor after missing the jump and failed to respond when the speed got going in the final stages.
After winning the Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot back in November, there’s no doubt he’s capable of improving but remains tough to have from the wide draw.
Imaging
Imaging can take improvement into his second-up assignment after finishing a narrow runner-up to Streets Of Avalon in the C.F. Orr Stakes at Caulfield.
The Waller sprinter showed a tremendous turn of foot to overcome a three-wide position and looks well-suited here dropping back in trip.
The British import has found the money in five of his seven starts second-up from a spell and must be included in your numbers.
Key Stat: trainer Chris Waller is hoping to win the Newmarket for a second time after training Brazen Beau to victory back in 2015.
Kemalpasa
Kemalpasa’s recent form reads well for this contest as he takes plenty of fitness and consistency into his second Group 1 start.
After winning the Group 2 Linlithgow over this track and trip back in the Spring, the five-year-old has since gone on to run a very bold third behind last fortnight’s dead heat Oakleigh Plate winners Celebrity Queen and Portland Sky.
He’s found the placings twice previously in his third run back from a spell and is worth a thought in exotics despite the awkward draw.
Celebrity Queen
Celebrity Queen is looking to go one better after drawing a dead heat with Portland Sky in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield two weeks ago.
The Grant and Alana Williams-trained mare hit the line strongly after overcoming a wide position and is no doubt one of the better chances getting out over further.
The daughter of Redoute’s Choice finished a narrow runner-up to Elite Street in the Winterbottom at Ascot last year and has also won four of her eight starts over the 1200m.
She’s drawn to get an ideal run from barrier 6 under William Pike and is a much better chance than her current price suggests.
Key Stat: Celebrity Queen is looking to become the 12th horse and the first since Lankan Rupee (2014) to complete the Oakleigh Plate – Newmarket Handicap double.
Dalasan
Dalasan resumes from a spell looking to atone for a fairly luckless Spring.
The four-year-old finished two lengths fifth to Fierce Impact in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes over the mile and was only half a length off last week’s Chipping Norton winner Verry Elleegant in the Turnbull.
He does have the runs on the board to suggest he can run a race first-up but probably warrants consideration over further.
Flit
Flit struggled to cope on the soft track at Rosehill running fifth of six in the Group 2 Expressway Stakes first-up.
She now makes the journey back to Melbourne and should appreciate getting back on top of the ground.
The Godolphin mare ran on strongly to defeat Alligator Blood in the Silver Eagle during the Spring and has also performed well at Flemington in the past winning the Thousand Guineas in 2019.
A win looks tough from this barrier, but there is improvement to come.
Standout
Standout gets the blinkers on for the first time after struggling to overcome the wide draw first-up in the Oakleigh Plate.
He held ground for eighth over this track and trip in the VRC Sprint Classic last time in work, but would need to improve significantly to be a factor.
Bold Star
Bold Star struggled for room second-up in the Oakleigh Plate where he was trapped three-wide from the onset.
He’s worth forgiving on that performance after finishing a narrow second to Prophet’s Thump first-up in the Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield and has drawn to get a much kinder run in transit this time around.
The five-year-old has missed the money only once in six starts at Flemington and has also won twice down the straight at Headquarters.
Not the worst.
Brooklyn Hustle
Brooklyn Hustle has been extremely unlucky not to find the placings in each of her last three starts.
The mare by Starspangledbanner capped off her Spring campaign with back-to-back fourths in the Moir Stakes and the Manikato at The Valley, before a repeat performance first-up in the Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield two weeks ago.
She’s overcome wide gates in the past and another top-four finish would not surprise.
Halvorsen
Halvorsen claimed a hat-trick down the Flemington straight two years ago but has struggled ever since.
The son of Magnus finished fifth to Fabergino first-up at Listed level and was a non-factor in the Oakleigh Plate finishing second-last.
Tough to recommend based on those efforts.
Indian Pacific
Indian Pacific is on the quick back up after holding ground for second in the Listed Hoysted Stakes at Flemington last week.
This is obviously much tougher, but the son of Zoustar has raced well over this distance in the past. Worth thought in multiples from the inside draw.
Indian Pacific
Indian Pacific is on the quick back up after holding ground for second in the Listed Hoysted Stakes at Flemington last week.
This is obviously much tougher, but the son of Zoustar has raced well over this distance in the past. Worth thought in multiples from the inside draw.
Prophet’s Thumb
Prophet’s Thumb failed to produce her best in the Oakleigh Plate after storming home to win the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield the run prior.
Losing Jamie Kah obviously played a factor and she’s unlikely to find this any easier.
Key Stat: Craig Newitt leads all current jockeys with three wins in the Newmarket Handicap (The Quarterback 2016, Shamexpress 2013, Miss Andretti 2007).
September Run
September Run is no doubt the horse to beat on Saturday after memorably winning the Coolmore Stud Stakes over this track and trip during the Spring.
She returned to work to produce an eye-catching run in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes, hitting the line strongly for second from well back in the field.
How Does A Handicap Draw Bet Work
Her turn of foot makes her tough to bet against in this race, especially with Craig Williams retaining the ride.
The pair combined to claim a hat-trick down the Flemington straight during the Spring capped off with a two-length win in the Coolmore over Saturday’s rival Swats That.
The absence of Nature Strip leaves this well within her grasp and barrier 8 should see her enjoying a similar run off speed.
Key Stat: September Run can become the sixth horse and the first since Sunlight (2019) to win both the Coolmore and the Newmarket Handicap in the same season.
Sirius Suspect
Sirius Suspect is shooting for his hat-trick after winning the Group 3 Standish Handicap over the track and trip earlier in January.
The six-year-old has been kept fresh for his first look at a Group 1 and has won a whopping eight races over this distance previously.
Barrier 14 makes things tough, but he warrants plenty of respect with Jamie Kah engaged.
Amish Boy
Amish Boy is looking to break a run of recent placings after finishing runner-up in both the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas on the Gold Coast and the Group 2 Autumn Stakes at Caulfield last month.
The colt by Star Witness was far from disgraced at this level during the Spring running sixth in the Caulfield Guineas behind Ole Kirk, but he does look a slight query stepping back to the 1200m now.
Prague
Prague has also accepted for the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes in Sydney on Saturday.
The colt by Redoute’s Choice gets the blinkers on again after coming home strongly for third first-up in the Group 3 Eskimo Prince Stakes at Randwick over the same trip.
He’s done some of his best racing over this distance but would need to produce something special from the awkward alley.
Swats That
Swats That looks the main danger to September Run after filling the minors on back-to-back occasions behind the Waller filly.
The daughter of Shamus Award was beaten by close to two lengths in the Coolmore Stud Stakes back in October before fighting on well for third first-up in the Lightning.
She’s found the money in all three of her starts at Flemington and is also a two-time winner over the 1200m with a pair of Group 3 wins at Moonee Valley and Caulfield to her name.
Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Jye McNeil has plenty of work to do from the wide gate, but she meets September Run 2kg better at the weights and is capable of staging some revenge.
Newmarket Handicap Tip
September Run at $2.30
For some betting enthusiasts, simply betting on the winner of a game isn’t enough. They need a type of bet which can take more things into consideration, like recent form, difference in squad value and the size of the win.
For these specific cases, handicap betting has been born. These bets first appeared in Asia, especially in the Hong Kong and Indonesian markets, but quickly grew in popularity in the 21st century.
Nowadays, any brick-and-mortar or online betting site offers many handicap bets (simple, split, Asian) on a multitude of sports, the most popular being basketball, hockey and, of course, football. Handicap bets may seem complicated but are simple to understand. Let’s find out below!
Best betting sites for Handicap betting
Handicap betting explained
Handicap betting takes the form and value of a team in consideration more so than regular betting and can be applied to any sports. Simply put, a team can have a positive or negative “handicap” attached to their name.
Let’s take an example from basketball first: If you look at a betting slip for a game between the Lakers and the Clippers, you have the option of betting on the home side, the away side, or on a draw.
When looking at handicap bets, you might see something like Lakers -4,5, or Clippers +6,5. This only means that the teams start the game (for you bet) with the positive or negative score attached to them. In the case of the first bet, the match no longer starts at 0 – 0 for the Lakers, but at -4,5 – 0.
If they game ends 98-92, your bet is a winner, because the Lakers’ score (98) minus their initial handicap (-4,5) is still greater than the Clippers score (92). If the Lakers won 95-92, your bet would be a loser, because 95-4,5 < 92. Easy to understand, isn’t it?
Handicap betting in football
While handicap bets are available in a wide array of sports, their most common application is found in football betting, due to the large number of events you can place handicap bets on. You can place handicap bets on the final result of the game, on yellow cards, corners, the number of goals scored by each them – the possibilities are almost endless.
Handicap betting is a great way to take advantage of the in-depth knowledge you gain when you analyze a team for long periods of time, like half a season. These bets can also mirror some very common choices, like double chance bets or over/under bets, usually at better odds – because lots of bettors don’t understand how handicap bets work.
Types of Handicap betting
In football, there are three main handicap betting types: simple, split and Asian.
Simple Handicap (or European Handicap) is easiest to understand. It only gives you round numbers to deal with. Let’s take a modern example: Liverpool will play Tottenham in the next round of the Premier League, on 11.02. The basic odds for the game are 2,15 for a home win, 3,40 for a draw and 3,30 for an away win. The European Handicap bets for the same game work in the following way: Each team is given a handicap, either positive or negative.
For example, for a -2 handicap for Liverpool, the odds for the above scenarios are the following: Home win: 8.50, draw 6,00 and away win 1,20. This simply means that Liverpool start the game with -2 goals. If they win with this handicap, you win 8.50 times your initial wager, and the rest are self-explanatory. On the other hand, the odds for Liverpool +1 are 1,34 – 4.75 – 6.50 respectively.
Asian Handicap introduces some different concepts, since the handicaps aren’t always round numbers. Let’s take the same game as an example. We can place a Liverpool -1,5 bet, which means Liverpool start the game with -1,5 goals. If they win by two goals, the bet is won – if they win by one goal, draw or lose the game, the bet is lost – very straightforward until here.
For Asian Handicap, the trickier bets are -1 and -1,25. Liverpool -1, in this case, mean that Liverpool start the game with a -1 goal handicap, but if they win by just one goal, you get your money back. No win, no lose, just a refund.
This is a great way to bet on favourite teams against smaller ones since they tend to win their games with at least a few goals. The main difference between European and Asian handicaps is this one: For European Handicap, a -1 bet means the team has to win by two goals or more. For Asian Handicap, the team can win by a single goal, and you can get your money back.
What Is A Handicap Draw Bet
A -1,25 bet is called a Split Handicap bet, and can be presented in another form as well: -1, -1,5. Essentially, your bet is split into two bets: a -1 bet and a -1,5 bet. If Liverpool wins by a single goal, you get half your money back (the -1 half) and lose the other half (-1,5). These split handicap bets are a great way to reduce risk when going for a big bet, like -2,25 or similar. They are not as widely used by betting enthusiasts, but still, present some interest.
These same rules are applied for other categories as well. For yellow cards, Liverpool -1,5 means that Liverpool have to concede with 2 yellow cards more than Tottenham for your bet to be a winner. -1,5 for goal scored means that Liverpool needs to score at least 2 goals.
Examples
Now that we’ve clarified how handicap betting works let’s take a look at a few real live examples from next weekend’s games. The Premier League gives us a clash between Burnley and Chelsea, one the away team should be winning. The odds for this away win are pretty small – 1,40, but we might be able to take advantage of the game using handicap bets.
A Chelsea -1,5 bet, which has very good chances of succeeding, has odds around 2,10 at most bookies – and the Blues should win this game by two goals. On the other hand, if you think Burnley will play well defensively and not concede a lot, a Burnley +2,25 (split handicap) bet has odds around 1,40 – a good thing to consider since Chelsea might also lack motivation.
Another example comes from Bournemouth – Manchester City. An away win has the same small 1,40 odds, but going City -1 gives odds at around 1,80. If they win by a single goal, you get your money back – which is a good thing, considering that City need to win.
That being said, we hope you now understand European and Asian Handicaps and are ready to use these bets in real market conditions. As always, take good care when analyzing your games, and be inspired!